How to Forecast: A Guide for Business by James Morrell

Author:James Morrell [Morrell, James]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Social Science, General, Sociology
ISBN: 9781351744577
Google: Ve1HDwAAQBAJ
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2017-11-22T03:32:07+00:00

Changes to come

Continued dependence on the car makes the computerized control of traffic and road routes inevitable. Technology is already available to automate driving so that it would be feasible for a computer to take over control of the car on joining a motorway or major highway by locking onto an electronic road system which would control both the speed and position of the vehicle. This technology is likely to be introduced in cities and large towns in the advanced economies in areas of high population density, as well as on inter-city routes.

A number of pilot schemes of automated driving and traffic control are likely to be introduced in the first decades of the 21st century and networks are likely to be inaugurated in the rich, mature economies later in the century. Progress in this direction will continue through the century but coverage will still be far from complete at the century’s end.

Such changes in transport systems will be accompanied by further advances in rail transport. The high speed networks will be expanded using the revolutionary magnetic levitation technology. A track is planned between Berlin and Hamburg adapting a technology dating from the 1920s. The ‘Transrapid’ train has no wheels and is propelled by magnetic fields. It clutches a concrete runway just as a runner glides along a curtain rail. This vehicle is capable of travelling at speeds of up to 300 mph, uses less energy than the French Train a Grande Vitesse (TGV) and is quieter. It is hoped that 14 million passengers a year will use the new route, should it be completed, reducing the train journey time from three hours to 55 minutes, taking passengers away from the airlines.

Japan is also working on similar technology. This creates a 10cm gap between the train and the track compared with only 10 mm in the German system. The larger gap is better suited to deal with earthquake risks. This system requires much more electricity so as to create very big magnetic fields.

These transit systems, if successful and adopted in other countries, will reduce potential demand for short-haul air routes. Air travel has been increasing rapidly and the continued strong growth in tourism as the populous developing nations become more affluent will raise challenging problems for the industry. Airport congestion is already making air travel uncomfortable. Security problems add to the delays. There is growing opposition to the expansion of airports and the airline operators are uncertain about the prospect of meeting expanding passenger numbers by commissioning bigger and bigger aircraft.

There will inevitably be significant advances in technology in this field. As with motor transport, fuel technology will be improved, incorporating new systems and fuels aimed at cutting fuel consumption and pollutant emissions. Hydrogen may well be in use by the end of the century. Airport congestion will require greater integration of transport systems to smooth the flow of passengers in and out of the area. In addition, engine design will be advanced so as to reduce noise.

There is likely

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.